Holy hell I have had a bump in readers all of a sudden.
Perhaps for my geo- synchronicity article I linked on divine cosmos comments.
And I'm building on that in this article. Not with any new information though, this is not a super article like that. More like your classic blog with a kind of diary entry format.
So, I am very uncomfortable atm. The reason why hit me a second ago. On top of my normal emotional discomfort I am, on the psychic level, flowing against the crowd so completely at the moment. I am pushing a service to self option, and can see, through the precognition that comes from the last article sort of thinking, how things are going to play out.
A basic set up of politics. English politics has two main political parties that get the largest proportion of the seats. There are 650 seats in total. So that means to get a guaranteed winning of a vote no matter what the opposition does, you will need more than half (326). This is called a 'majority government'.
The Tories have a majority government. They have 330 seats. That's a slim majority.
The three biggest seat holders at the moment are: Conservative: 330 Labour: 232 Scottish National Party: 56 (Almost every seat in Scotland, I think bar three).
The thing on the table at the moment is a vote, the Prime minister will put forward to vote on airstrikes in Syria against Islamic State (I like to call them Da'esh which is what they will be called for the rest of this article). The leader of the Labour party spent his young life as a Stop the War activist, he is very against war. His followers of which there are many, are very determined also not to go to war, they have been protesting in person and on social media (obviously). They see this as a repeat of the Iraq and Libyan war and believe the government has malevolent intent.
These people I have spoken out against before on this blog, I find close minded and irritating. However, I have already said that, I have also already said something I will re- iterate in this article.
Corbyn and his supporters are behaving like a bloc. Trying to understand it it goes like this: 'Normal' people do not like Corbyn, they are not radicals. It seems like Corbyn and a small band of radicals are insisting trying to push their perspective, it is very likely they will fail, and will do so spectacularly, and it is very likely that the problems this creates will have a reverberation for the politically aware (and perhaps some of the not-so-politically-aware) people in England.
I could be wrong on this, it could be that Corbyns supporters actually make up a larger part of the electorate than I am assuming. I find that unlikely.
At the moment there are two issues on the table. It is not likely Corbyn will win the Syrian airstrike vote and prevent the British government going to war, however, the Telegraph has been reporting today that while the Labour vote against the war was at about 60 MP's (Member of Parliament... Politicians) . These MP's have been getting 'appalling intimidation' from Corbyn supporters. Corbyn himself is forcefully attempting to bring his own MP's around to his perspective saying they will have 'nowhere to hide' if they support Syrian air strikes.
On top of that these same supporters are protesting today and many other days... Don't bomb Syria and in support of Paris Summit. They are at full intensity.
This... I predict... is going to end BADLY... Let me sketch out what is going to happen.
Vote wise it is highly unlikely that Corbyn and his band of twitter radicals will stop the airstrikes. Some of Cameron's MP's are rebelling, it could be as few as 10 or it could be a few more., here's the rough count:
Tories: Out of 330, between 10 and a few more will likely not vote for the strikes, leaving the remainder to vote for the airstrikes.
Labour: Corbyn is trying to whitter these down. Let's say it is between 30 - 60 truly brave souls support the air strikes and the rest against. (Perhaps 10, but I doubt that, some will be very angry at being bullied. Like Douglas Carswell says; did they become a politician so Diane Abbott could tell them what to think?)
Liberal Democrats: Voting for the airstrikes. 8 seats perhaps minus about 1 - 2
Democratic Unionist Party: 8 seats. Voting for again. Same as above.
Scottish Nationalist Party: Against the airstrikes. 56 seats.
There isn't much lee way here no matter how you do the maths. Say 12 votes from LD's and DUP. Will solve Tories potential problem with rebels. From there you need more Tory rebels than Labourites voting for the strikes, abstentions also could get in the way but not significantly. This is extremely generous as well to the 'don't bomb Syria' vote.
So you can see where Corbyn and his band are coming from. But it is a very long shot. More Tory rebels than Labour supporters?
I think... They will lose this, and Corbyn and his band will have put in a lot of effort to push it that will include bullying people.
What comes next is not pretty for Labour, and is from a place in the North of England.
An extreme Labour safe seat in a place called Oldham is having a by- election. This has been a Labour seat for a long time. It should be very easy for the Labour party to put up a donkey as their candidate and still win.
However, because of this unusualness. Labour... Real Labour, not the young passionate activists, but dyed in the wool 'voted-Labour-all-their-lives-types', do not like Corbyn; he is 'toxic'. Part of the reason also is that there is dissatisfaction within the Labour party, and they refuse to go to Oldham to campaign on Jeremys behalf. The Labour MP's are not happy with Corbyn.
There has already been talk of people leaving due to various different things. If Corbyn starts losing Labour MP's, that could spell trouble. If he is bullying them... That also spells trouble. With the support of 'appalling intimidation'. That is trouble; and these Labour MP's may make some sort of move to replace him. I don't know what that would be (I am not versed on that part of politics) but it could happen.
So imagine it. All the intensity of a fanatical, quasi religious group of fanatics, some of whom have been quiet most of their lives but are now joining in since a candidate 'left' enough is giving them a voice. Against a population whom doesn't like these people or their symbol. The hope will go... and then...
Well all that intensity will find an unpleasant manifestation? Either whinging or potentially violence. The country will be going to war and these type of people's hated party, that they deride as fascist and racist (UKIP) will have taken a key seat off them.
Nope, not good at all.
But that's just a story!