I have been trying to get my mind about tariffs since it has been talked about.
It has been clear to me, since about 2015 when I more seriously got into this kind of thing, that economics is very important for the "global game", of good and evil.
Humans... are tribal creatures. While our inbuilt, down to the bone, animal instincts still tell us that the tribal rules of old are important. This civilised, more technologically advanced world doesn't always align with said senses. In my view.
The Q people, and most people really, on the right wing side, has been far more exciteable, by many many times, about the release of the Epstein files than these tariffs. But to me, from what I have understood. The problem with the system we currently have is, for a lot of reasons, the actual system more than the individuals. In most cases.
Incentives are incredibly, incredibly powerful. People, as is completely rational and is another thing from tribal times. Minutely work out what is in their best interests. Down to the smallest currency depending on the individual. As an example, the welfare state managed to make a lot of single mothers. Because they were incentivised to. For thousands of reasons, one of them being that they know the welfare state is there, so they don't work hard at having children with a stable provider, but are more free to pursue their lusts. Another is that the welfare system tends to reward single mother more highly. I.e. you have more welfare money if you don't have a provider helping you.
Incentives, of sometimes amounts such as 10%, change an entire society. They change it slowly sometimes, but they are powerful partly because they are global.
Arresting loads of rich folks who went to Epstein Island will give some measure of good. Some ammunition to the right people in the culture war. But it is not where huge worldchanging decisions are made and entire industries of millions of workers and all the incentives therein actually change. That is MONEY that does that. The truth about the Epstein list is, that there are probably more celebrities and Epsteins of the same exact character and power waiting in the wings.
But now considering what is going on with tariffs. The fact they have basically effected everyone in the world. It seems like to me. It seems likely that a lot of the effects are going to come about through such complex mechanisms that we barely have any idea what will happen. But another thought is that it is likely, that with the whole financial system changed. With all these incentives changed and so much subtle behaviour change. That there is a possibility that this move by the Trump administration will create such gravity as to simply destroy the deep state in every country.
It could be that the free market spreads like a kind of virus for which there is no defence.
As a small example. If America is running a country with very low regulations, with no DEI so the most efficient people are hired. With a decreasing immigrant population leading to less crime. Basically a bunch of rich, happy, productive, Americans - who don't pay income tax and are not subject to regulations.
Imagine you are like... the UK, and people in your country are selling... yo- yo's. DEI has made the business less efficient. Most of the men don't have partners because they are not rich enough, overtaxed. And the culture has shifted away from the easy socialising that would encourage that. So the company is producing. But it is not producing amazingly. It produces say, 200 yo yo's at 40% quality every month at £3 per one yo yo. We will call this company Yo keys.
Then you have an American company, due to the aforementioned, including finding it easier to procure the materials for the yo yo's because they are produced in America and tariffs have forced pretty much all production back to America. It is a truck drive away for most materials not imported from China. This company full of happy, hard working, American family men produces 600 yo yo's at 70% quality every month at $1 per yo yo (so it can be sold cheaper). We will call this company Yo S A.
Previously what would have happened is the UK government would have slapped a tariff on Yo S A and it all would have been good. This is important, because the effects on the economy of things like DEI and regulation; can't ever be too negative for it to continue. Yo keys would have sold it's produce into America but America would not have sold it's yo yo's to the UK.
But now things are different. If you want to put a tariff on Yo S A then Trump will slap a tariff on Yo keys as well, and no on in America will EVER buy them. So the UK government has two choices. Either put the tariff on and lose access to US markets, which will only be getting better and more advanced. Or don't do that and Yo keys will fail because Yo S A is better.
It makes DEI and over regulation pretty dangerous for any economy. It sets up a heavy incentive to do away with regulation and move to free trade. Of course that might not happen. But these tariffs change the game.
They also effect tax. Yo keys, no matter which way it swims, with or without tariff, or without regulations, will not be paying so much tax.
This is just one company, this whole situation will be effecting more than one company. In many unpredictable ways. It will be effecting other things as well like politics in various ways. When you have to empower smart white men who are the biggest voters for Trump like politicians, rather than hobbling them with DEI, then there is a huge risk of a power shift.
I imagine America's free trade agreements with Israel and a few other countries, maybe South Korea, whichever fold first, will be very productive. It will begin to set up a new trading block, those that do agree to free trade. What if all those countries start benefitting? And any country that resists free trade starts to fail?
I mean, it is all pretty amazing.
