Tuesday, 21 June 2016

EU ref -1 day 4 hours. What is likely to happen after the vote.

I've been reading around but it is not very clear at all what is actually going on with this vote. What will actually happen,

First a little humour:

This is funny, and quite true. My mother told me she was a 'chaotic neutral'. I have made very sure not to push her into any decision or even ask what she is voting, but I do as a natural outgrowth of my personality enthusiastically make the case for leaving the EU every so often, when something comes up.

Second from the bottom is quite poignant as well, 'I just want it to be over' was almost stated by someone at work. Although he has not discussed his reasons for wanting to vote remain, he is gay in the sense that he values homosexuality as a central part of his identity (not all homosexuals do, some are just people that happen to be homosexual),  his partner signed him up for registration, and he wants to get the vote over with, when he said so it made me think he is unsure of his decision and so wants to get it over with. 

There is a Spanish person at work who is leaving the country just after the referendum for two weeks, this line in the Telegraph gave me cause for pause (below), but I do not believe the immigrants who have already come here will not be allowed back in if they have lived in the country under EU rules. It is just not logical to suddenly declare people who have legally lived here illegal immigrants:

Telegraph: EU referendum: Here's what happens in the 72 hours after Britain votes to leave
Some EU citizens in the UK might consider leaving but, given that the prospects of coming back in by right are likely to be lower in the future, then the number of immediate departures might be fairly limited.
Telegraph: Three million EU citizens in the UK could be deported if Britons vote for a 'Brexit', Home Office suggests
He said: “Clearly any EU citizen that is legally here if we come out of the EU would absolutely have the right to remain here. Any other suggestion is just absurd.
“It is a scare story, full stop. It just shows how desperate the Government and the Remain campaign are.” 
Tory MP Philip Davies added:: “Nobody would ever suggest that anybody who has arrived here legally would be evicted from the country. For the Government not to make that abundantly clear is ludicrous.” 
He added: “They must know full well that they wouldn’t and couldn’t deport people who previously arrived here legally."
I suppose it is a bit of a grey area though. Obviously our society would collapse if we sent back all the foreign workers in one week or so... If someone leaves the country though are they allowed back? Or would they come under the category of a new migrant that falls under the 'Australian style points system'.

Regardless, so, the first article and one it links to here, explain that no one really knows what's going to happen on the surface, article 50 is a bit obscure and doesn't really lay out much substance of how these things go down. It is also fairly punitive and I don't think the European Union ever planned for a strong member country of theirs to leave when they were in such a (self imposed *cough* Eurozone *cough*) considerable place of weakness. There is no reason Britain has to put up with any of this crap. A piece of paper can't declare the law if you are going to leave anyway and don't have to put up with it:

So, these are some considerations here:

  • The vote is done by proportional representation. The closer the vote, (as polls suggest it will be) the longer it will take to find the result... It is predicted that the result, if clear, will come at around 3:30 - 5am. But it will not necessarily if it is closely tied. It is officially declared at 12:30pm on the 24th of June.
  • Quite quickly if it is leave, there will have to be announcements on three areas, all of which will likely be that nothing is going to change in the immediate future: British citizens living abroad, EU citizens living here and trade...
  • The markets will probably plummet in the case of leave and mildly rally in the case of remain. Zerohedge: Panicked Brits Rush To Buy Gold Bars, Stuff Them In Home Safes
  • There are differing views on David Cameron and the political situation. JP Morgan can be quoted saying: 

Zerohedge: JPMorgan Reports 3-5% Lead For "Leave" In Brexit Referendum

The day after a leave vote, the UK’s legal relationship with the EU would remain largely unchanged. But the political environment would change enormously. Our best guess is that David Cameron would resign as [P]rime minister within hours of the result being known. While he might attempt to remain in office until the Conservative party conference in October, his authority during this period will have been eroded. Boris Johnson is likely to take over as PM subject to the vagaries of the Conservative leadership election process (see below). A snap general election is possible, but in our view, unlikely. (Emphasis of line Zerohedge)
  • However, the view of a snap general election being unlikely seems not all that certain in the dialogue in British politics:
Independent: EU referendum: Jeremy Corbyn says Labour is 'very ready' for snap general election after vote

  • In the case of an 'In' vote, Boris Johnson said it well: 'Imagine an 'in' vote, Juncker drinking champagne and Peter Mandelson saying we can join the Euro.' David Cameron will start a new reshuffle, purge his cabinet members that were leave and start with a new, more tyrannical government. The EU will talk about what's in a new budget, the Greek crisis will resume, Spains elections will kick off more austerity arguments and there will be new pain all around. I had thought to myself I could enjoy the suffering of those remainians that deserve it (which I would) but I will not be able to enjoy the suffering of the weak and infirm under this continued austerity.
  • As talked about in the last blog. There would be a legal challenge against the referendum on the basis of Purdah and direct vote rigging. UKIP would surge as a democratic force. The fight, for libertarians, would continue.
  • The establishment crap would not matter though since the financial system is on its last legs. I would expect any potential crisis to be worse with EU laws interfering with being able to respond in the right ways... It is EU laws that allow 'bail ins' for instance.
  • In the event of an out vote, the parliament may refuse to exit the EU. Like Tsipras did in Greece after the Greek people rejected the Euro recently. For some reason I can't quantify I think that would be more difficult here. Whoever is working behind the scenes against the English establishment is doing a bang up job and Britain is just not Greece. We are a more powerful country.
  • In the longer term. Probably unskilled immigration will be stopped, the financial crash will happen, we will have a huge fishing industry and things will get better. Market competition from EU taxes and various laws being removed, means that crap companies will not survive the free market will start to behave better. It is likely if we out there will be a snap election within the next 6 months in my view.

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