Saturday 2 April 2016

The narrative is subtly changing on finance.

Wow, on a personal level, I'm tired. For whatever reason, my body seems to be taking on a lot of aches from moving around a little. I often intend to do something and then just realise I am exhausted.

However, that REALLY doesn't matter as to what I am going to say here.

I have noticed a subtle shift in the narrative on finance matters amongst the alternatives, and amongst those in the mainstream the alternative quote every so often. (Some bank or analyst somewhere, or mainstream media article or pundit, is very often the source of alternative media's articles).

Whereas it used to be 'the crash could happen tomorrow' or 'the crash could just begin with a slow disintegration into nothingness'. It has changed to 'when it happens, it is really going to crash very quickly.'

The theory behind it is this:

Two alternative investment strategies:

I invest in a company. A few years into its startup I decide, based on evidence and due diligence, that a company that is manufacturing free energy devices is very promising and will make me money, plus I like the people that run it.

The stock market has its ups and downs. I pay a little attention to them. I also pay intention to all the financial reports coming out of FE, and all the fundamentals the connect with it.

The price of lead goes down by 10%. The stocks go up for FE. The company lays off 100 workers. The stocks are pretty much unchanged. The company expands. Stock goes up. The company has a legal problem with sexual harrassment. The stocks go down 2% but when everyone find out it's an attention seeking whore who will not be able to get anywhere with her accusations, the stocks go back up to unchanged.

The price earnings ratio is reliable. The price of lead, zinc and copper is fairly unchanged. The price of the building is relatively unchanged and capital expenditure is kept up with.

There are also other things going on. There is a master magician nearby, a central bank that decides various things, however, most of these announcement effect the finance industry, there are changes in governments, but it doesn't matter, there is value in the company.

One day stocks make a massive fall across the board and several people do get out of the company I have invested in. Thinking of selling stocks and I decide that the fundamentals hold up, there is no reason to assume everything is going to be awful. So I keep my stock. Along with others that do the same thing, and all in all we're all OK. The company after all is a good company.

Second alternative:

As an experienced finance manager I invest in a company. This company is a restaurant say. A fast food chain. (Eek, but yes this is the best example I can think of because it travels so perfectly in line with the DOW). There is one big financial crash and everything gets skewed a bit. Rather than paying attention to any of the restaurants or the wider economies stats, I decide that paying attention to the central bank is the way to go.

After a while it seems like I really am on easy street. I make a bad mistake in not following the central bank at one point and lose a bit of money. After that I just buy a lot of the time because that's what the central bank wants me to do.

There are increasing alarms from various people that this is stupid and won't work, but a wide array of mainstream economists to hand keep me secure in the knowledge that the central bank, backed by the government, will not fail, and also give me some reasoning of which to fight back any of these crackpots arguments.

So, I just pay attention to the central bank. The name of the company is sort of secondary. I have money in it, when the central bank gives the right word on a struggling countries loans, or an interest rate I find favourable. I buy, and it is glorious, I always gain money.

There are several things that are bad about the company I have invested in but I ignore them. For instance, the company announces a massive corporate buyback program, I think; Surely that is not good if a company is buying its own stocks! The company I have invested in is almost an appendage. Although they release good reports some of the time, the overall market is something I basically ignore most of the time. If there are more or less employed I usually don't think too much about it.

Plus, I have invested in some all- market futures that should make everything OK.

But then, the unthinkable happens!
One day stocks make a massive fall across the board
OH MY GOD WHAT JUST HAPPENED! There has been a lurch. The people have in some way risen up and voted against the markets interest. This new guy... He's not really into all this speculative finance. He's an ex business man and believes in creating real businesses that are 'great for our countries prosperity'. What a jackass! Plus there have been a few too many corporate defaults and there is an important company nearby that has gone bankrupt.

Everyone lost everything! The company survived with about 30% of its revenue and this went to the largest shareholder.

This could happen to me. I could lose hundreds of thousands, perhaps MILLIONS!

SELL. HOLY FUCK SELL!

I haven't looked at this company, I have no confidence in the company. I know they have been buying back their own stocks. I know that I am losing money regardless of what happens. All the other investors were also just looking at the central bank. What's wrong with these fundamental anyway? Wages have not been going up, that's important for a restaurant business and people will lose money from this stock crash; employment has been going up a little but it looks like several might be laid off in the next few weeks.

Holy FUCK. Why didn't I buy gold? At least I can salvage the situation a little.

SELL. SELL. SELL. SELL. SELL!

And there you have it:

Zerohedge: Danish Central Bank Warns Of "Risk Illusion", Fears "Fire Sale" Plunge In Asset Prices

SGT report: SO, WHERE IS THE COLLAPSE? -- Bill Holter



No comments:

Post a Comment